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Where home prices are slipping the most – and where they’re still going strong

Paul Ewart

Paul Ewart, Journalist

There have been plenty of headlines lately about an imminent steep fall in housing markets across Australia, and prices are beginning to dip in some suburbs.

But they’re also still going strong in a number of other locations, proving that the cooling of markets is far from even.

Pessimistic outlooks, coupled with expectations of further interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the coming months, understandably has some feeling nervous.

Despite the doom and gloom, predictions of a downturn aren’t as guaranteed as they might seem, according to Cameron Kusher, executive manager of economic research at PropTrack.

“Prices were already falling before interest rates increased,” Mr Kusher said. 

“When the pandemic hit, there were concerns that property prices could slump sharply, however government stimulus and the RBA cutting the cash rate quickly allayed those fears.”

While house price growth is cooling, there are still city suburbs where things are on the rise. Picture: Getty


People being unable to spend their cash via usual channels during the pandemic, when lockdowns were implemented and restrictions changed everyday life, meant buyers devoted more money to housing.

“The fact that borrowing costs were extremely low, and people were spending more time at home and/or working remotely, saw people dedicate much more of their income to housing,” he said.

“Fast forward to now, usual spending options have resumed, and the impact of lower interest rates has now reversed and led to some recent price falls in the largest and most expensive cities.”

Australia is in the midst of a two-speed economy, presenting opportunities for would-be buyers. Picture: Getty


While home prices are undeniably cooling nationally, new data from PropTrack has shown that a two-speed housing market has emerged.

And there are some suburbs bucking the trend, where prices are actually increasing.

The Melbourne suburb seeing a surprise slump

Australia’s two largest capital cities recorded the fastest property price declines in May, according to PropTrack’s Home Price Index

Median prices in Sydney fell by 0.29% while median prices in Melbourne fell by 0.27%.

“Buyer numbers and competition strength has reduced,” said Melbourne-based buyer’s agent, Amy Lunardi, explaining how this decline has manifested in Victoria’s capital.

“Properties that are priced well are still selling, with some homes still attracting a number of bidders at auction, though most properties tend to have one or two key buyers, which can be more precarious if one or both drop off before auction day. 

“More properties are passing in or taking longer to sell as vendor expectations are still adjusting to the new market.”

Melbourne suburbs with the largest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Bonbeach$1,295,00042%
2Lancefield$797,50039%
3Safety Beach$1,250,00038%
4Bunyip$782,50038%
5Portsea$3,750,00038%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Pascoe Vale South$725,00044%
2Balwyn North$1,246,00027%
3Hastings$559,00027%
4Rosebud$750,00026%
5Mont Albert North$1,300,00025%

PropTrack data showing the five suburbs where prices are sliding and the five suburbs where they’re growing reveals that some of Melbourne’s priciest postcodes are softening.

Toorak, one of the city’s most exclusive and affluent enclaves, has been a long-standing front runner for property price growth.

Yet the suburb has seen the smallest median house price growth, down 11% in the 12 months to May 2022, with current median price sitting just above the $5 million mark. 

Similarly, units in Toorak were also down by 17% in the same period, hitting a median of $935,000, according to PropTrack. 

Cremorne, a prime suburb 2km southeast of the CBD, was down by 8% in the year to May, with a median house price now of just under $1.4 million. 

Melbourne suburbs with the smallest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Toorak$5,087,500-11%
2Cremorne$1,396,250-8%
3Caulfield$1,890,000-6%
4Werribee South$720,000-4%
5Brooklyn$830,000-2%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Albion$280,000-28%
2Essendon North$410,000-23%
3Kingsville$475,000-23%
4Toorak$935,000-17%
5Maidstone$575,000-14%

Premium markets historically lead property downturns, and Toorak’s price dip is an example of this, Ms Lunardi said.

“They do also lead the upturn when the market changes again,” she said. “There are fewer buyers at the top end of the bell curve, therefore a drop in this buyer pool has a more significant impact on values."

“Premium markets also have less turnover and therefore number of sales, so even slight changes to the stock levels have a relatively larger impact on the median price.”

Despite Melbourne leading the national trend currently for home price declines, there are pockets where growth is still underway. 

The sun is still shining on many Melbourne suburbs. Picture: Getty


The beachside suburb of Bonbeach — known as the ‘gateway’ to the beautiful Mornington Peninsula and situated 31km southeast of the CBD — saw the highest house price growth, up by 42% in the period.

It was followed by the town of Lancefield, up by 39%, which lies 69km north of the state capital in the Macedon Ranges. 

“In Melbourne, the strongest suburbs for price growth are really mixed for houses, with some more affordable and more expensive suburbs on the list, while the biggest falls are in blue-chip inner and middle ring suburbs,” Mr Kusher said.  

“The unit results are quite varied too, with most of the best performers having higher median unit prices, while most of the weakest performers – except Toorak – are home to more affordable units.”

Ms Luanrdi said the top performers have a common theme – appealing to the post-COVID buyer market by offering lifestyle via a tree- or sea-change.

“The work from home trend has continued to influence buyers as they have more flexibility to have an inner-city based job, but are now able to live in the country or on the peninsula,” she said.

Harbour City hoods bucking the trend

As in Melbourne, Sydney’s typically heated property market has been cooling off lately, according to PPD Real Estate partner Debbie Donnelley

“Investors are becoming more thin on the ground as rates rise,” Ms Donnelley said.

“Higher rates take the gloss off the rental returns and buyers are now taking their time. The urgency has gone as they don’t have to compete with prices going up on a seemingly daily basis.”

Sydney suburbs with the largest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Gables$1,430,00063%
2Bundeena$2,000,00060%
3Barden Ridge$1,620,00060%
4Silverdale$1,252,50055%
5Austral$1,028,00053%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Norwest$1,200,00044%
2Clovelly$2,180,00041%
3Forest Lodge$1,270,00040%
4Long Jetty$735,00040%
5Terrigal$1,255,00039%

Given the appetite for real estate with surf and sand proximity, it’s perhaps unsurprising that the beachside suburb of Bundeena — flanked by stunning seascapes and breath-taking bush in the Royal National Park — has seen a whopping 60% increase to its median house price, which is now $2 million. 

“It was only a matter of time before Bundeena caught up with the Sydney property market,” Ms Donnelley said.

“It has been a sleeper suburb for a long time and took just one large sale on the beach to kick its market into gear. Buyers suddenly discovered this sleepy little town, one hour away from Sydney bordered and by the National Park on one side and stunning, clean north facing beaches on the other.”

Sydney suburbs with the smallest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Wilberforce$991,250-6%
2Warrawee$3,135,000-2%
3East Killara$3,160,0002%
4Manly Vale$2,755,0004%
5Kensington$3,305,0006%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Milsons Point$1,900,000-21%
2Concord$920,000-15%
3Little Bay$845,000-13%
4Kogarah$670,000-13%
5Lindfield$1,157,500-11%

But the Sydney suburb that recorded the biggest growth in the year to May, up a whopping 63% in just a year, is a definite wildcard.

Gables, located 24km northwest in the Hills District, now has a median house price of $1.43 million.

“It’s still within easy reach of Sydney and with further potential to expand with increased infrastructure,” explained Ms Donnelley. 

“The growth seems to be a result of buyers [who] went farther afield to look for affordable housing, or value for money.”

Sydney units also saw another Hills District suburb achieve the largest price growth, with Norwest — adjacent to Bella Vista — increasing 44% to $1.2 million.

It was followed up by a much more familiar and predictable suburb in the desirable beachside Clovelly, up by 41% to a current unit median of $2.18 million.

Many buyers are still in search of lifestyle factors, like being near the beach or the Harbour. Picture: Getty


At the other end of the scale, the smallest house price growth was seen in the town of Wilberforce in the Hawkesbury River region, which dropped by 6%, followed by Warrawee on Sydney’s Upper North Shore, which is down 2%. 

“In Sydney the largest increases in prices are typically in suburbs with prices around, or slightly above, the citywide median,” Mr Kusher said. 

“While for units, the best performing are suburbs with less well-established unit markets.”

The nationwide rise and fall

In other capital cities around Australia, it’s a similar story of a two-speed property market emerging after almost universal price rises in recent years.

In Brisbane, Thorneside topped the list of house price growth with a 58% surge in its median to $955,000, closely followed by Anstead, up 55% to $1.3 million.

Brisbane suburbs with the largest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Thorneside$955,00058%
2Anstead$1,300,00055%
3Gordon Park$1,350,00053%
4Newport$1,197,00050%
5Woodford$680,00048%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Brassall$293,00047%
2Mount Gravatt$505,00035%
3Wilston$550,00029%
4Balmoral$717,50029%
5Ellen Grove$335,00028%

Brisbane suburbs with the smallest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Ellen Grove$527,500-15%
2Gleneagle$492,5000%
3Newtown$460,0005%
4Berrinba$500,0006%
5Esk$357,5008%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Milton$430,000-21%
2Redbank Plains$282,500-16%
3Newmarket$440,500-12%
4Strathpine$330,000-9%
5Enoggera$430,000-8%

The Queensland capital suburbs with the smallest growth were led by Ellen Grove, down by 15% for houses, and Milton, down 21% for units.

In Adelaide, the inner-north-eastern suburb of Manningham saw the highest growth with a 63% median house price increase, while Kingswood witnessed a fall of 6% to its unit median.

Adelaide suburbs with the largest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Manningham$930,00063%
2Hazelwood Park$1,575,00063%
3Beulah Park$1,290,00058%
4Seaview Downs$820,00056%
5Burnside$1,361,00054%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Hectorville$490,00049%
2North Adelaide$518,00046%
3Warradale$446,50037%
4Salisbury$276,00035%
5Klemzig$307,00031%

Adelaide suburbs with the smallest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Kingswood$1,320,000-6%
2North Adelaide$997,5000%
3Peterhead$481,0001%
4St Peters$1,800,0002%
5Woodville$760,0004%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Walkerville$327,500-27%
2Glenelg$530,000-24%
3Glenside$405,500-20%
4Parkside$482,500-17%
5Adelaide$440,000-14%

Also in the South Australian capital, the suburb of Walkerville dropped by a significant 27% to hit a median price of $327,500.

Perth’s Mount Hawthorn led the West Australian capital’s suburb house price growth with a 32% increase, narrowly followed by Kensington, up 31%.

Meanwhile, units in Crawley fell by the most over the period, down 16% year-on-year.

Perth suburbs with the largest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Mount Hawthorn$1,250,00032%
2Kensington$1,205,00031%
3Gwelup$1,053,00028%
4Silver Sands$510,00027%
5Shelley$1,176,00027%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Dudley Park$310,00041%
2Inglewood$410,00031%
3Armadale$260,50030%
4Bayswater$428,75028%
5Jolimont$400,00027%

Perth suburbs with the smallest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Mount Richon$480,500-4%
2Middle Swan$356,000-3%
3Kelmscott$365,500-3%
4Applecross$1,917,500-1%
5Maylands$770,500-1%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Crawley$540,000-16%
2Victoria Park$349,000-15%
3Mount Pleasant$561,250-14%
4Burswood$558,000-12%
5Ascot$431,250-11%

In Canberra, the suburb of Watson saw the highest growth with a 61% increase in its median house price to hit $1.23 million.

Unit prices increased by 44% in the suburb of Campbell, but the apartment median in Barton fell by 13%.

Canberra suburbs with the largest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Watson$1,230,10061%
2Throsby$1,190,00060%
3Scullin$925,00045%
4Red Hill$2,383,00044%
5Macquarie$1,097,50044%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Campbell$855,00044%
2O'Connor$610,00040%
3Wright$510,00036%
4Moncrieff$686,00030%
5Lawson$650,00030%

Canberra suburbs with the smallest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Cook$930,0009%
2Evatt$880,00017%
3Banks$762,50018%
4Campbell$1,785,00019%
5Nicholls$1,250,00021%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Barton$549,500-13%
2Dickson$522,000-5%
3Bruce$410,000-2%
4Braddon$520,000-1%
5Kingston$670,0003%

Hobart suburbs with the biggest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Clarendon Vale$450,00045%
2Primrose Sands$525,00040%
3Mornington$623,00038%
4West Moonah$755,00038%
5Bridgewater$430,00037%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Lenah Valley$610,00036%
2Sandy Bay$767,00026%
3Kingston$575,00022%
4Glenorchy$450,00021%
5Howrah$575,00019%

Hobart suburbs with the smallest growth

Note: There were no Hobart suburbs where prices declined in the period. Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1North Hobart$888,90012%
2Kingston Beach$927,50014%
3Margate$745,00014%
4Austins Ferry$646,50015%
5Midway Point$613,00016%
Unit
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Claremont$435,00014%
2Hobart$790,00017%
3Howrah$575,00019%
4Glenorchy$450,00021%
5Kingston$575,00022%

Darwin suburbs with the biggest growth

Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Humpty Doo$495,00065%
2Ludmilla$780,00052%
3Nightcliff$950,00046%
4Muirhead$710,00031%
5Wagaman$561,00029%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Bakewell$340,00070%
2Bayview$560,00040%
3Woolner$440,00038%
4Rapid Creek$400,00034%
5Fannie Bay$550,00028%

Darwin suburbs with the biggest declines

Note: There were no Darwin suburbs where prices declined in the period. Source: PropTrack
Houses
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Leanyer$597,0003%
2Farrar$554,5006%
3Rosebery$564,0007%
4Johnston$640,0008%
5Bellamack$602,5009%
Units
RankSuburb Current median price% change
1Stuart Park$425,0003%
2Nightcliff$395,0007%
3Parap$381,50010%
4Millner$254,00013%
5Coconut Grove$342,50014%

Potential to bag a bargain

Some would-be buyers and prospective sellers might be feeling a sense of pessimism right now.

“The frenetic increases have passed, so it’s safe for buyers to again take their time and cherry pick the best of properties, rather than feeling they just need to buy anything to get into the market,” Ms Donnelley said.

“Buyers will be able to come back into the market but at a cost.”

This cost for prospective buyers is rising interest rates, which they will need to weigh up against falling prices and lower deposit hurdles before making the leap.

“Rates basically can’t go lower than they are so the outlook from here is likely to be more volatile, as rates rise and fall more regularly,” Mr Kusher said.  “These create opportunities for buyers and sellers. 

“It also seems like governments are getting more serious about reform which can free up supply, reduce red tape, encourage more movement for homeowners and overall make the market more efficient.

“Don’t forget, higher interest rates also mean higher returns on savings, so lower prices and higher interest on savings is likely to benefit market entrants.”

The two-speed market means prices in some suburbs will dip, but others will continue to experience price growth. Picture: Getty


Although the outlook for buyers remains unclear, a softening market does present opportunities for less competition and fewer investors. 

In short, first-timers may finally be able to catch a break after a long while.

Where to next?

As seasoned real estate-watchers will know, there is no crystal ball when it comes to predicting the best time to buy or sell.

Despite prices slowing, pent-up demand and various other economic factors mean that many homeowners, investors, and experts are all hedging their bets.

“While further rate rises towards the end of this year may further soften prices, it’s also important to note that stock levels will ultimately be impacted too, with some vendors holding back,” Ms Lunardi said.

“Therefore, buyers could face a catch-22 of lower prices, but also far less choice. This means that the best buying conditions may be in the next few months, as stock levels adjust.”

The buyers who ultimately win in these kinds of markets are upsizers, who are able to cash out at a peak and upgrade a home for less, she said.

Cooling markets could present an opportunity for some would-be buyers. Picture: Getty


The old faithful lifestyle factors come into play with property predictions too, said Ms Donnelley, who asserts that stalwarts in the Sydney property market – namely the coveted eastern suburbs – will weather any real estate storm. 

“Suburbs with a lifestyle element, like beaches and parks, and those close to public transport, particularly as petrol prices soar, will always do well,” she said.

“Suburbs on ‘fast track’ train lines will increase in popularity as families opt for a quieter suburb but still want quicker access to work.

“In Sydney specifically, the property market is very, very resilient — this isn’t the first time we have seen it taper off, and it’s not the last boom we have seen either.”

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